Friday, August 24, 2007

On Nuke Deal

I generally don't like commies, but I guess, in India they definitely serve a purpose. To curtail the blatant hedonism of likes of Congress and BJP both. The recent noise about "left" threatening the government has made everyone express his or her opinion. Me too! :-)

First, truth be told, I don't know a word about what is there in the nuclear deal or "123". The only "123" that I know about is a song from the movie "तेज़ाब". However the rush with which PM Manmohan Singh has acted on the deal begs few question.

- For a deal as serious as this was there a "parliament approval"? Did US president sign the deal without Congress approval? Why did our PM sign the deal without "parliament approval"? and if the deal is signed and say implemented without parliament approval, will it be binding on the subsequent government (as and when it is formed)?

- History tells us that US never works in the interest of anyone but themselves. So the question that we should ask is - What exactly are those interests and how much detrimental are those?

Coming back to nuclear power plants or energy generation in India. Why the government does not come up with real numbers as to what is the shortage of electricity today? How the nuclear power plants are going to help fill that gap? What is the economics of nuclear energy vis-a-vis fossil fuel powered and other non-conventional like Wind powered? What are the hazards? What are the efforts taken to ensure that there is no collateral damage? Answering these questions will make the case really stronger (if the government indeed has one), otherwise this opens possibilities for a consipracy theory that sees under the veil Bofors like kickbacks.

Personally I don't think we should be building huge Megawatt power plants, but instead focus on few 10s of MW captive power plants connected with a grid. (I am not an expert), but looking at the population distribution and energy usage distribution, I guess it is far more economical in the long run to build captive power plants, with a distributed ownership.

Saturday, August 18, 2007

एक अप्रतिम विचार

... विकसित देशांमधल्या "तज्ज्ञां"चा तांत्रिक सल्ला हा विकसनशील देशांच्या गरजा वा प्रत्यक्श परिस्थितीशी निगडीत नसून त्यांच्या स्वतःच्या देशाच्या आर्थिक हितसंबंधांशी जोडलेला असतो हा आणखी एक मौलीक परंतु अतिशय दुर्दैवी धडा मला मिळाला....

डॉ. व्हर्गीस कुरीयन

On Indian Stock Market....

My opinion about how the things are going to pan out -

A very short term picture
I think we have completed the first leg of the correction after the recent top of 4600 and there is a likelyhood of a rally to upto 4300 on nifty. I am thinking of buying a couple of 4100 calls if I get them under 120 or I'd just buy one. Square that off when nifty reaches 4300 or when Reliance reaches 1825 or when premium reaches 200 and stop loss at 80 or when nifty falls below 4100 (yesterdays closing.) even intra day. 4300ish looks a decent resistance level right now, with three indicators 50% of the drop between 4600 and 4000. Resistance from the descending trendline connecting recent tops and 50 day EMA. So that will be a good place to get out of long position and do fence sitting. most likely it'd hover around that level. If it starts correcting from there, we've formed a good head and shoulders reversal pattern that should take us to 3650 levels on nifty. If 4300 resistance is overcome, there are chances we'd go all the way upto previous High of 4600 and then that becomes a double top reversal and the downside is somewhat the same 3600ish slightly more. There is a reason why market should go up from here. There is about 5 billion dollars of FII money trapped and the market is roughly where it was before this rally started (nifty 4100ish), so the money needs to get out and we need a rally for that and yesterday's Fed rate cut have provided the right sentiment for this. I'll be watching daily FII activities in cash segments, if the pattern of withdrawals remains constant, it implies that money is leaving. By the time we reach 4300 levels if there is a net inflow of atleast 500M$,it might imply that we'd go past the previous high and then the double top formation doesn't hold and there is a possibility of a bigger rally taking nifty upto 4800ish levels. (In my humble opinion I don't see a reason why that should happen, especially looking at the 'repricing of the risk' sentiment, but I have a right to be wrong! ;-) )

Bigger Picture

On a bigger picture, on a weekly chart (see above), we are running very close to the big trendline that started from 2003 bottom (start of bull market) and connecting all the intermediate bottoms. So looking at that, we need a bigger sustained rally for the bull market to remain intact and that needs money. So I was looking at FII inflows starting from 2003 the year when bull market started. 2003 had net FII inflows of roughly 6.5B dollars, 2004 had net FII inflows of 8.5B, 2005 had net FII inflows of 10B, 2006 had a net FII inflows of 8.5B and by today net FII inflow in 2007 is roughly 9B. Remember, as we go to higher levels, we need more dough to keep the rally, so looking at the arithmetic progression, we need somewhere close to another 5-6B $ net FII inflows in the coming months. That is not impossible, but again looking at 'repricing of risk', this looks a tad difficult. In short, we are running out of breath for the bull run, unless there's an energy drink (Red Bull) coming from somewhere.

I have been assuming in this discussion that the bull market will only continue if there is enough FII flows. However the past tells us that, the whole bull market is fed by the FII money, so the assumption is not entirely incorrect.

Regardless of whether the bull market remains or not, I am going to be playing week by week.

Disclaimer: The opinions are completely personal and should not be taken as investment advise in any way. Investments should be made solely on the basis of personal risk appetite and investment objectives.


1. The chart is taken from
2. FII inflow figures are taken from SEBI website.
3. Technical analysis by vivek patil on ICICI direct.

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

cheap patriotism

Often, we use words with little care, however behind that unscrupulous use of words, there is an underlying emotion (or mental picture so to say..) that says a lot. eg. We always hear "India's Freedom Struggle" and "American War of Independence". I'd like to point to somewhat subtle yet very obvious negative connotation associated with words "struggle" as opposed to "war", "struggle" is a defensive effort, where as "war" conveys agression, confidence. Similarly for "freedom" and "independence". "Independence" implies a self belief, confidence where as "freedom" looks parallel to be freed from the prison say. It is a tad too pessimistic to be speaking of such things on the occassion of 60th Independence Day. But off late I have started getting peeved off on the occassion of the "national festivals" and associated display of "cheap patriotism".

Coming back to what I call "cheap patriotism", it is far easier to shout slogans of "वन्दे मातरम्‌" and "जय हिन्द" etc. but isn't that really cheap, cheap as in cost associated with it and the value it delivers. It takes no efforts to shout a few slogans, so there is actually no cost associated with it and ditto for value (the slogans don't feed the hungry next door neighbour, the slogans don't patchup the pot holes on the road, the slogans don't generate energy, the slogans don't give the deserving child an opportunity to learn and explore). But it takes efforts to build roads, supply electricity and making sure every child gets a free and compulsory primary education. There is a cost and value to it, but alas it also requires, application, commitment and enormous amount of hard work and no wonder why everyone is so apathetic about it.

Honestly, very very honestly I am not proud about India. Come on, it takes heart and complete lack of common sense to be proud of the roads on which we drive, the electricity which we use, the education that we get and the perpetual incompetence that we have to deal with while receiving any "service". Or you want me to be proud of our newly elected "president"?. Honestly I don't have the heart and not yet completely devoid of common sense.

Never mind, I am one of those doom mongerers who never see a positive side in anything. No I don't believe in the "great India Story", ofcourse I must admit there are pockets of greatness still there (eg. Amul, Baba Amte, Dr. Swaminathan), but miniscule compared to the juggernaut of incompetence, mediocracy and lack of values.

Okay finally let me join the bandwagon of cheap patriotism "जय हिन्द!!"


Humour "finance news style" -

I have been reading a slew of finance news off-late. Here are some interesting picks from those.

Credit Crunch in second life as well?

This story on minyanville reports some interesting anecdote about a credit crunch in second life, as if the one in first life is not good enough.

Another cool picture from an article in minyanville.

If one's not still satiated go and read bloomberg for any of the announcements made by Goldman Sachs about their "quant funds". There is more fun out there than you'd find in a Disney cartoon.

Now something about a Toy Story

Mattel has withdrawn 13.4 million chinese made toys from the market, which had more lead paint than permitted by regulation. So where are those toys going to get dumped? You right the dumping yard of Uncle Sam, India. Isn't this a reason why uncle Sam is so hard pressed about the Nuke deal? Where'd you dump the nuclear waste otherwise?

Why does blogger have a nasty "onKeyPress" that renders my typing to a near halt?

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Do you know?

The counter yahoo uses on its finance site for the NYSE stock volumes is a 32 bit one? It wraps around after a four billion plus volume. I am going to watch it wrap around tonite, before I go to sleep........

and for those who didn't believe me - here is the screen-shot

Before Wrap up

After wrap up

a quick link

Here is something I came across,on It's about some fake pfizer drugs being sold in India.

Here is the link

Thought may be I should spread the word!

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

who's the boss out here?

Amazing video I stumbled upon while reading something.

Friday, August 03, 2007

Nifty this week 30th July - 3rd August

Highlights of the week for the NSE ...

- shedded almost a percent at 4401 end of the week.
- Weekly charts for the past 18 months shows a small downtrend starting last week with a bearish engulfing candle.2 year weekly chart shows there is a good support around 4180 levels on the weekly basis.
- YTD daily sharts shows we are in a short term down trend with resistance around 4450 (20EMA), 4500 (trend line starting the beginning of this rally in April) and resistance around 4370 (50 EMA),
- Should trade between these ranges, breaching of any of these levels on higher volumes will indicate the subsequent direction. Though the outlook is certainly bearish.

BANK Nifty -
- Up almost 150 points (though on lower volumes.)
- Bank nifty is in weekly downtrend with a huge bearish engulfing candle last week.
- Weekly resistance is around 6900 levels (looking at 18 months weekly trendline.)
- A very good support at 6600 (50 day EMA.) and a weak support at 6820 (20 ema)
- Should trade between 6600 to 6900. Crossing of any of these levels on higher volumes will indicate subsequent direction. The tone is still bearish.

Reliance -
- Down almost 65 Rs. for the week.
- A strong weekly support at 1750 level (trend line for the last two years and 50 EMA.)
- A weak resistance at 1825 and a strong support at 1800 levels (trendline starting last july.)
- On a daily chart shows downtrend last week. (with lower volumes on up days and higher volumes on down days.)
- A little bearish, this stock is going to be pivotal in the coming week especially owing to very high weightage in the nifty.

IT stocks -
- Took a beating last week. Nothing much to write about.

State Bank -
- Up almost 135 Rs. on good volumes on weekly charts.
- Shows a strong support around 1550 mark from the daily trend line and 20EMA.
- Resistance around 1650ish.
- This looks strong, unless it takes a beating with others.

In short the next week will pan out depending upon how SBI and Reliance perform. SBI needs to maintain its rally and reliance needs to take a support at 1800 levels.

Global cues indicate weak markets in the coming week. The mild recovery Europe posted early this week was washed out yesterday. Asia is not significantly recovering and S&P500 closing below its 200 EMA indicate a nervousness in the global markets.

Disclaimer: The stocks/indices discussed here are a personal opinion and for informational purposes only. This should not be taken as investment advise in any way. Investments should be done based upon personal opinion and risk appetite.

Credits: All the charts mentioned are taken from