just can't seem to get it?

Anybody following the stockmarkets for the past couple of weeks should get puzzled and have shorted it (like me), should get frustrated!! The things just aren't falling in place, but it doesn't matter, the markets are rallying and thats it.

- starting July 2 Indian stock market has rallied by 5 and a half percent.
- In this rally there have been all but two days of decline (which had a 0.25 and 0.43 percent decline.
- If we go back a little, in last month the markets have rallied by almost 10 percent (common is this Shanghai or something?)
- Not a single day of more than half a percent decline in 20 trading sessions, the highest decline is 0.46 percent.)

And all of this comes when
- most of the global markets have shown some intermediate corrections, but bulls at the Dalal street seem to be unfazed by that. Only possible exception is wall-street, which did have a hiccup or two but thats it nothing beyond that. Yeah all of this when a little over billion dollar gotten wiped out in the Bear Sterns Hedge fund, which is just the tip of the subprime iceberg. The dollar is at its weakest against Euro and pound.

- When the crude price is hovering around $75 per barrel

- When we have two successive weeks of increase in inflations. (up by almost .25 percent from its low.)

- When during the days for which I have observed, FIIs though buying in cash segments, have been in net short positions in Stocks futures and Index futures to the tune of 2000 Cr. rupees (not to mention tons of 4400 and 4300 nifty puts, which are going to go down the drain, I suppose)

- When none of the quarterly earnings being spectacular per say. (Infy disappointing, TCS goodish, HDFC okayish, Wipro poor. Only real surprise came from L&T (The stock has appreciated little over 30% already) and Ranbaxy.

- Now all of this is fairly risky, but no one knows where to find a top? The rally resembles almost a panick rally (I agree it is oxymoronic) Usually such situations arise while finding a bottom.

This looks like "someone is printing free cash" to go ahead and buy stock, the question is who? Carry Trade?

The answer just isn't there, or I can't seem to get it...... :-((

महावितरण and the art of वितरण!!

महा in english means mega or big, and वितरण means distribution. Thus in short this is the name of the electricity distribution company that distributes electricity to the most industrialized state in India, महाराष्ट्र (maharaashtra), and I live in पुणे (pune) one of the top 10 metros in India. The availability of electricity is a random function. Not to mention, the fluctuations in the voltages, which take their vicitims every now and then. The voltage levels are not so random they range between 160 to 300 with mean being 230ish.

So here are few examples of one's experience with the art of वितरण.
- You read a nice blog by a friend, when you are about to write a comment and just at that moment, the laptop cribs "power disconnected!" and then you are like "O fuck!", and then you wait for a couple of minutes, 'cos you know the electricity is going to come back anytime, its just like waiting for a RockStar at a big concert, he can arrive anytime, next minute in a few minutes but certainly "today"...

- whenever clouds gather in the sky, you can bet all your wealth that the electricity is going to go anytime soon.. Infact a couple of times I have been "disappointed", when, inspite or heavy showers the electricity was intact for good twelve minutes..

- sometimes there is nothing happening in the sky, but lights go off and on a few times in a span of 20 minutes, I believe the guys out there are "testing", that they can indeed turn the electricity off at will, just in case...

- Then there is official loadshading, which is somewhat a random function as well, the only certain thing about it is, "It will happen!"

- If you ever visit, rural parts, its a fun indeed, there you'd find something called "आकडा" hanging on a wire, whereupon a lot of villagers solve the problem of "distribution" by "pulling" the electricity, of course, they can do so only for a couple of hours in a day... thats महावितरण's way of settling the scores..

PS : This blog post was written un-interruped, oh well almost!

Minnows with Superstars

I often used to wonder "Who is more incompetent? Bollywood or Indian Cricket Team?" Actually I owe a couple of sorries for this. First to bollywood for comparing them with "Team India" and second to "Team India" for rating them way too higher.

To some this might appear as a result of frustration due to a humiliating defeat vs. Sri Lanka. But actually I am quite happy that this team is unlikely to make it to super 8. I think it will be a grave injustice to teams like SA and Aussies if they have to play "Men In Blue". For several reasons - they play cricket which the good teams used to play about 15 years ago. There is no intensity, no fitness and just exemplary display of incompetence.

The question I would ask myself if I have been playing cricket for 15 years and doing nothing else is -

1. Should I make the same mistakes time and again ?
2. How did I improve over last 15 years?
3. Should I really be playing (reminds me of Damien Martin who took a voluntary retirement, the reason he gave "There are faar too many players who are more committed than me. I really don't deserve to be there.")

A lot of cricket fans feel that the players don't play for the team or country, they play for themselves. What I'd say is "Don't play for the team or country. Play for yourself and that requires a great deal of self-respect. If I don't play well - I can't look at myself in the mirror and say I am doing a good job or atleast doing a job for which I am being paid!"

While watching the Aus vs. SA match, I was thinking lets count the number of runs we'd have gotten less than the aussies or the number of runs we'd have saved. After third over I stopped counting, its just apples vs. oranges. You just can't compare Indian team with them. Sorry, just can't.

If one looks at the kind of games the so called minnows play during the world cup, there is a distinct similarity between their play and the way MIB play. There is no strategy, there is no application, there is no plan (forget about Plan A or Plan B. Interesting to note - When Sangakara came forward to Vaas' second ball, we had no clue how to go about it? and juxstapose it with the way Hayden or smith played - against arguably the best bowlers in the world!)

It simply means Team India is plain "incompetent". And there is no reason to feel bad about it, sometimes the facts are too hard to believe. They may be talented - but competence is not just about talent - it's about fitness, stamina, application and a certain degree of confidence that only comes with hours and hours of hard work.

But thats just not the problem of Team India. Its the terminal problem of Indians as a whole. We just don't work hard enough.

Thats the reason I call this team a "Minnows with Superstars".

Before I conclude - I pray that Bermuda don't come up with a surprise against Bangladesh. Mostly my prayers will be heard. If they are not - I think aussies and SA should consider giving a walkover to India in super 8. They just don't belong there.

From 'मैं हू ना' to 'कल हो ना हो' - Part I

You might be confused to think that this entry is about movies of SRK/KJ and company. Actually, there is one man whose fortune is following the same path as these movies.. After all there is a limit to which you can expect people to like nie tolerate non0sense.

Yes you guessed it right..

From an almost arrogant "मैं हू ना" a couple of years back, mr. PC is almost thinking "कल हो ना हो", and it won't be a surprise if his budget reflects those sentiments.

More about this later.