Toooooooo Mucccccchhhhhhh

The only other time I remember laughing as much as today was after reading "Almost Everything about Flowerpots" from one of P G Wodehouse's novels, or may be not.

This is the best piece of humour, sarcasm I have read in last so many years, if ever in my life.

So here it is Kevin Depew of minyanville on Five Things you need to know for today on minyanville tonight!!

Sunday Evening ........

I stumbled upon a couple of rather interesting urls over last few days, though completely un-correlated, they have a common theme.

Here's one about chuck norris and the global credit crunch


and here's one about Paul Graham and Life Universe and Everything.

supwerbowl of cricket (update 2)

Hoooooooosh! It's over in as dramatic style it gets, the sigh of releif comes because India managed to reach home. But what a match it was an absolute stunner of a game!! This is the third occassion I remember, where I thank God for giving me eyes to watch the spectacle in front of my eyes!!! The last two were our Test win at Adelaide and the wimbledon 2007 final.

This format of limited overs cricket has been quite a revealation in more than one ways! It's excitement crunched into less than half the number of overs. Traditionally cricket has been a game of batsmen but the Grand Finale to the T-20 worldcup proved, it's the ballers who still call the shots!! Apart from that there have been a few revealations for the Indian cricket. For starters, it proves that a unit that plays as a unit wins and you don't really need superstars! (well this as well could have been a setup and the conspiracy theorist in me still believe so.), but still a world cup victory is a world cup victory Setup or otherwise!

Some interesting finds have been, the way Dhoni has lead the team establishing an authority, showing faith in young guns (Dravid would not have dared in his life to put Yusuf Pathan as opener, anyways he's a poor captain spare him for this good day!), then givign ball to Joginder Sharma, playing a big gamble twice in a row, remember it could have gone either way! But thats what they say in Poker, you can only loose what you've got on the table, but if you don't play, you can't possibly win much more.

The fielding has been of pretty decent standard. Uthapa's direct hit to get rid of Imran Nazir came just at the right time. Importantly, the bowlers are bowling within the stumps! You miss, I hit! and not to forget one of the biggest finds of this tourname Rohit Sharma. He's a cool customer.

It would be unfair not to give due credit to the splendid display of calculated risk taking by Misbah, but he was just a little short in the end! Never mind well played man!!

This does not mean Indian cricket is out of the woods, but today is the day to celebrate man!! Only if our board and selectors learn that "There is talent and thus an opportunity, only if you think beyond the obvious!"

Well played team India!! Many congratulations! and well played pakis too! Tough luck!!!

Monday the 24th - Superbowl of Cricket

It's Superbowl of Cricket!!!

A couple of weeks ago, when the twenty-twenty world cup started and if someone were to pick the winner, or even guess the finalists, I guess a lot of names would have come to the fore, barring the two who are making it to the final.

I for once have stayed away from Cricket for a while, but this format is best format of the cricket after test matches. It's the excitement of 50 overs squeezed into 20 overs and there's everything that a cricket fan enjoys. Balls going out of the park, stumps going off the ground, stunning catches, ubelievable run outs and deluge of runs! Though I must admit, this format is a bit harsh if you are a bowler, but traditionally Cricket has been batsmans' game.

Surprisingly, the young Indian team is playing some "good solid cricket". The way India defeated aussies yesterday (I still feel a touch sad when aussies loose, even if India defeats them.) in a knockout match, pressure cooker situation, certainly means the momentum is with India, but pakis are playing a good game too.

It is BIG, World Cup final and it's India Vs. Pakistan!!! It's the superbowl of Cricket!!!

By the way

I was amazed to find out that my ssh session was intact after a reboot following "hibernate" in ubuntu!! Too damn good!

All this was nine years ago?

I have heard about LTCM so often, that I decided to check out what it is...Incidently today happen's to be the ninth anniversary of LTCM's debacle. :-)

Here is a detailed chronology of what happened at LTCM. Honestly I didnt understand the details of LTCMs strategy and what caused the screw up.

I have been following the finance news quite closely off-late and some of the causes of debacle of LTCM, and those of hedge funds like Golden Alpha or Bear Sterns are strikingly similar.
- Complex Mathematical Models.
- Heavy Leverage
- Atleast one unhedged risk going wrong.

Why is it not that we learn lessons from events just nine years away? Or is it that no one wants to learn the lessons at all, for they know, if I screw up, I am going to be bailed out.

For my friends who undertand sed. just do s/LTCM/"Golden Alpha" and s/Russian GKO/American Subprime

and everything else is same

How Bernanke has (potentially) screwed me!

Yesterday, I was toying with the idea - What if Bernanke does a Paul Volker? I was a bit too optimistic about this I guess (I am still short on Nifty). Apart from that there is a reason why I can be potentially screwed by Bernanke's pyrotechniques yesterday.

Recently, I have got a project where I am going to get payment in US dollars(or pesso), by the time I get my payment, the dollar might be a good couple of rupees below the current price and I stand to loose a decent amount of money. I guess, subsequently, it makes sense to quote in Euros.

PS: Out of curiosity, I was watching the Defty( which is the Nifty in dollars) YTD, while the Nifty is just 12% up YTD, Defty is up 23%. I guess, it won't be long before we hear words like Dollar Carry Trade.

Hedge funds or Leverage funds?

One of the best examples of the word misnomer is "Hedge Fund". Hedge funds are about everything but hedge. Bloomberg recently reported blowup by the so called "quant" hedge funds in August (again). One Goldman's Golden Alpha fund - Which bet for the Yen carry trade and lost 22.5% in august. Interestingly, Japanese housewives, a group becoming prominent forex traders also lost money in the month of August thanks to carry trade (where they were Yen short an Australian Dollar long.), which means the complex mathematical models employed by Goldman's alpha fund are not much different than those employed by Japanese Housewives, who are without the luxury of enormous amount of computing power at their disposal. This is not to demean Mrs. wattanabe, but the point here is - There is no "complex mathematical model". Most of the Hedge funds lost an average of 1.6% in August while the S&P gained 1.5% in the same month. Hence if some of those hedgefunds had actually "hedged" their speculations against S&P a lot of their losses will be "contained".

Mish's weblog has got a few interesting posts to read about it.

This is plain simple speculation amplified by leverage. So what should the name be? Golden Alpha Obscene Leverage Fund?

Tata Indicom and the art of Incompetence (update 2)

After being horrified with Tata Indicom's customer service, attached is an update to a mail sent to the folks. I received two "mail undeliverable errors", while these are the adresses picked up from their website. Looks like I will have to start a blog dedicated to incompetence of Tata Indicom.


Attached is the mail in original...

Remember this is the website of the second largest conglomerate in India and the webmaster address is not reachable. Can one imagine the impression an external guy is going to have? Ditto for the corporate.Affairs email address for a company website.

-----------------
This is an automatically generated Delivery Status Notification.

Unable to deliver message to the following recipients, because the message was forwarded more than the maximum allowed times. This could indicate a mail loop.

webmaster@tata.com




"This communication (including any accompanying documents / attachments) is intended only for the use of the addressee(s) and contains information that is PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL. If you are not the intended recipient, you are notified that any dissemination and/or copying of this e-mail is Strictly prohibited and you are requested to delete this e-mail immediatelyCommunicating through e-mail is not secure and capable of interception & delays. Any one communicating with Tata Companies by e-mail accepts the risks involved and their consequences. While this e-mail has been checked for all known viruses,the addressee should also scan for viruses and notify the originator or e-mail beshroff@tata.com. Thank you for your co-operation."

Final-Recipient: rfc822;webmaster@tata.com
Action: failed
Status: 4.4.6


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Abhijit Gadgil"
To: suroor.hussain@tatatel.co.in
Date: Sat, 15 Sep 2007 17:17:38 +0530
Subject: Fwd: Horrible Customer Care Experience (TTML)
Dear Mr. Hussain,

Being a customer and shareholder of your company, I believe I have a
right to ask few questions about the nature of operations of the
company. A reply from you may help me decide whether I should continue
being both or neither. I am afraid, my current inclination points to
later, based upon the recent exchange with your company regarding a
Samsung Duo phone. This is going to be my final attempt at banging my
head against the wall (probably, I am just an optimist, that you'd
improve, or a downright fool.)

Here is the detailed story -

Recently, I have seen the advertisement for Samsung Duo phone in News
paper and looking at the specifications was inclined to buy that
phone. The details of that experience are narrated in the mail
attached below, if you care please read that. I fail to understand
some very basic things.

1. If the handset comes with two slots for SIM cards, and ther is a
slot for a CDMA SIM card, why I cannot use my current prepaid SIM card
with the handset?

2. What if I really buy a new connection, but of course "being still
somewhat sane, inspite of being your customer", I would like to retain
my number and are you saying thats not possible? Or in other words -
"Well you were idiot enough to trust with us before - Tough luck
mate!"

3. I understand, there are various pricing mdoels, that come out of
creative(?) minds, which implies certain offers are packed in a
specific manner. Does it mean, you are going to loose some of the
customers for good because of those models. As a shareholder, I
believe I have a right to ask that question.

4. The competence of customer service is abysmal (I can not think of
any other word!). See below for a detailed discussion.

It is unfortunate that the quality of service is somewhat
questionable, which is a serious disturbing fact for me both as a
customer and shareholder, especially from a trusted brand like Tatas'.

The only good thing about you being you are not crooks. So ultimately,
I am left to decide between somewhat competent crooks and absolutely
incompetent but not crooks. If the "care for customer" is so pathetic,
I'd bite the bitter pill in that case.

If you care to look into some of these questions and answer me, I'd be
greatful.

Thanks

-abhijit
-----------------------------

Tata Indicom and the art of Incompetence....

This is the letter I sent to their divisional headish guys, not sure whether this whill help....

-----------------------------
Dear Ms. Navaz Karanjia and Mr. Shailesh Nandanwar,

Here is one interesting tale about the quality (or lack of it!) in
your customer service. Of course, I don't expect to receive a reply
from you. Thats your style (I mean your estimed company's.)

After checking the recent advertisement for Samsung Duo phone in the
newspaper (Times of India, Pune, Dated 13th September 2007), I had
called the customer care number mentioned in the advertisement to
request for a new "handset". Which by the way comes with a SIM card,
but still one has to take a connection with it, while I already have
one. So far so good, I don't mind taking a new connection as well.

Now I receive following calls - In that Order

1. From "A department" asking me whether I had applied for new
connection? I said NO. I had requested for new Handset and the guy
told me that one has to take a new connection.

2. Another call (now, I am surprised a bit, that your company actually
followed up a call, never mind.) asking me - Do you want a new Mobile
Connection. I had to re-iterate again. No I want a new Handset.

I am not too sure why is it so hard to jot down the following as a
Customer Request and why this cannot go to right department, in the
first attempt or atleast second or atleast third? "Mr. So and So has
requested for a new Samsung Duo phone, please follow up, this is the
number."

Yours is a company, unique in incompetence, where a customer is
himself asking for a business and you don't have the right people to
deliver the basic service. It is unfortunate the level of service (I
am afraid, I can't think of a better or worse word for this) is
associated with a trusted brand like Tata's, but never mind when you
hire morons, you can't expect to do a half decent job of anything.

Hoping that you'd atleast read this email.

Regards

-abhijit
--------------------

Possible Orkut bug?

I have been busy cleaning my mailbox etc. when I discovered an Interesting bug in Orkut. Attached is the Image. There is not a single scrap in my scrapbook and yet it shows 7 scraps. Not sure. How? I was thinking may be it was also counting messages in my Inbox. Well that doesn't tally either!! :-(



There are other things that I encounterd as well. eg. When the number of Scrap Entries in the dropdown list was 10, it was showing only three scraps on the page.

I guess, it will serve a lot more to fix these bugs than changing "css". The new "css" is bad btw!

Oh and puhleeezzzz puhleeez fix the naasty onKeyPress in blogger. The letters appear on your screen as if one is doing a Telnet to a server on Mars.

And this is not a setup?

Suman, once asked me "Is there anything you believe at all?" My answer was "Well not till I can independently verify it!". I had told him why Shwarzeneger became a big success in US (he comes from an iron curtain country, and what better way to show to the world, in the days of Cold War that America is a land of opportunities), why you started seeing bruce lee films around mid eighties (that was the time when there was a heavy American investment in China) and so on the list is endless.

Coming back to the topic of the day "India Vs. England Match". Well these days I am so engrossed following stock markets around the world (which are also setup btw, but the only good thing being there is a chance for me to make money there. More about this later), that I hardly follow cricket. But I watch the score once or twice. So when we switched on TV after returning from our shop, India required 42 runs of 25 balls. I calmly told my dad don't worry we'd win this match. It is setup to be like that. I guess after the much celebrated "test series win" the script of the Natwest series was written in advance 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, 3-3, 4-3 England winning it. So there was not much of doubt in my mind about the outcome of today's match. Well that doesn't mean you give final over to a part-time bowler when each of the regular bowlers have one over to spare. Never mind. So while a lot of people were jubiliant after watching India win, I was just smiling to myself for being proved right. This does not mean, we could not have lost the match, but certainly not in final over. And the way we won it was suspicious enough. With three balls to spare, you don't bring long-off in and bowl a half volley.I really felt sorry for having spent countless number of hours watching the game before. Wish I could learn these things beforehand.

On Nuke Deal

I generally don't like commies, but I guess, in India they definitely serve a purpose. To curtail the blatant hedonism of likes of Congress and BJP both. The recent noise about "left" threatening the government has made everyone express his or her opinion. Me too! :-)

First, truth be told, I don't know a word about what is there in the nuclear deal or "123". The only "123" that I know about is a song from the movie "तेज़ाब". However the rush with which PM Manmohan Singh has acted on the deal begs few question.

- For a deal as serious as this was there a "parliament approval"? Did US president sign the deal without Congress approval? Why did our PM sign the deal without "parliament approval"? and if the deal is signed and say implemented without parliament approval, will it be binding on the subsequent government (as and when it is formed)?

- History tells us that US never works in the interest of anyone but themselves. So the question that we should ask is - What exactly are those interests and how much detrimental are those?

Coming back to nuclear power plants or energy generation in India. Why the government does not come up with real numbers as to what is the shortage of electricity today? How the nuclear power plants are going to help fill that gap? What is the economics of nuclear energy vis-a-vis fossil fuel powered and other non-conventional like Wind powered? What are the hazards? What are the efforts taken to ensure that there is no collateral damage? Answering these questions will make the case really stronger (if the government indeed has one), otherwise this opens possibilities for a consipracy theory that sees under the veil Bofors like kickbacks.

Personally I don't think we should be building huge Megawatt power plants, but instead focus on few 10s of MW captive power plants connected with a grid. (I am not an expert), but looking at the population distribution and energy usage distribution, I guess it is far more economical in the long run to build captive power plants, with a distributed ownership.

एक अप्रतिम विचार

... विकसित देशांमधल्या "तज्ज्ञां"चा तांत्रिक सल्ला हा विकसनशील देशांच्या गरजा वा प्रत्यक्श परिस्थितीशी निगडीत नसून त्यांच्या स्वतःच्या देशाच्या आर्थिक हितसंबंधांशी जोडलेला असतो हा आणखी एक मौलीक परंतु अतिशय दुर्दैवी धडा मला मिळाला....

डॉ. व्हर्गीस कुरीयन

On Indian Stock Market....

My opinion about how the things are going to pan out -

A very short term picture
-------------------------
I think we have completed the first leg of the correction after the recent top of 4600 and there is a likelyhood of a rally to upto 4300 on nifty. I am thinking of buying a couple of 4100 calls if I get them under 120 or I'd just buy one. Square that off when nifty reaches 4300 or when Reliance reaches 1825 or when premium reaches 200 and stop loss at 80 or when nifty falls below 4100 (yesterdays closing.) even intra day. 4300ish looks a decent resistance level right now, with three indicators 50% of the drop between 4600 and 4000. Resistance from the descending trendline connecting recent tops and 50 day EMA. So that will be a good place to get out of long position and do fence sitting. most likely it'd hover around that level. If it starts correcting from there, we've formed a good head and shoulders reversal pattern that should take us to 3650 levels on nifty. If 4300 resistance is overcome, there are chances we'd go all the way upto previous High of 4600 and then that becomes a double top reversal and the downside is somewhat the same 3600ish slightly more. There is a reason why market should go up from here. There is about 5 billion dollars of FII money trapped and the market is roughly where it was before this rally started (nifty 4100ish), so the money needs to get out and we need a rally for that and yesterday's Fed rate cut have provided the right sentiment for this. I'll be watching daily FII activities in cash segments, if the pattern of withdrawals remains constant, it implies that money is leaving. By the time we reach 4300 levels if there is a net inflow of atleast 500M$,it might imply that we'd go past the previous high and then the double top formation doesn't hold and there is a possibility of a bigger rally taking nifty upto 4800ish levels. (In my humble opinion I don't see a reason why that should happen, especially looking at the 'repricing of the risk' sentiment, but I have a right to be wrong! ;-) )

Bigger Picture
--------------


On a bigger picture, on a weekly chart (see above), we are running very close to the big trendline that started from 2003 bottom (start of bull market) and connecting all the intermediate bottoms. So looking at that, we need a bigger sustained rally for the bull market to remain intact and that needs money. So I was looking at FII inflows starting from 2003 the year when bull market started. 2003 had net FII inflows of roughly 6.5B dollars, 2004 had net FII inflows of 8.5B, 2005 had net FII inflows of 10B, 2006 had a net FII inflows of 8.5B and by today net FII inflow in 2007 is roughly 9B. Remember, as we go to higher levels, we need more dough to keep the rally, so looking at the arithmetic progression, we need somewhere close to another 5-6B $ net FII inflows in the coming months. That is not impossible, but again looking at 'repricing of risk', this looks a tad difficult. In short, we are running out of breath for the bull run, unless there's an energy drink (Red Bull) coming from somewhere.

I have been assuming in this discussion that the bull market will only continue if there is enough FII flows. However the past tells us that, the whole bull market is fed by the FII money, so the assumption is not entirely incorrect.

Regardless of whether the bull market remains or not, I am going to be playing week by week.

Disclaimer: The opinions are completely personal and should not be taken as investment advise in any way. Investments should be made solely on the basis of personal risk appetite and investment objectives.

Credits:

1. The chart is taken from icharts.in
2. FII inflow figures are taken from SEBI website.
3. Technical analysis by vivek patil on ICICI direct.

cheap patriotism

Often, we use words with little care, however behind that unscrupulous use of words, there is an underlying emotion (or mental picture so to say..) that says a lot. eg. We always hear "India's Freedom Struggle" and "American War of Independence". I'd like to point to somewhat subtle yet very obvious negative connotation associated with words "struggle" as opposed to "war", "struggle" is a defensive effort, where as "war" conveys agression, confidence. Similarly for "freedom" and "independence". "Independence" implies a self belief, confidence where as "freedom" looks parallel to be freed from the prison say. It is a tad too pessimistic to be speaking of such things on the occassion of 60th Independence Day. But off late I have started getting peeved off on the occassion of the "national festivals" and associated display of "cheap patriotism".

Coming back to what I call "cheap patriotism", it is far easier to shout slogans of "वन्दे मातरम्‌" and "जय हिन्द" etc. but isn't that really cheap, cheap as in cost associated with it and the value it delivers. It takes no efforts to shout a few slogans, so there is actually no cost associated with it and ditto for value (the slogans don't feed the hungry next door neighbour, the slogans don't patchup the pot holes on the road, the slogans don't generate energy, the slogans don't give the deserving child an opportunity to learn and explore). But it takes efforts to build roads, supply electricity and making sure every child gets a free and compulsory primary education. There is a cost and value to it, but alas it also requires, application, commitment and enormous amount of hard work and no wonder why everyone is so apathetic about it.

Honestly, very very honestly I am not proud about India. Come on, it takes heart and complete lack of common sense to be proud of the roads on which we drive, the electricity which we use, the education that we get and the perpetual incompetence that we have to deal with while receiving any "service". Or you want me to be proud of our newly elected "president"?. Honestly I don't have the heart and not yet completely devoid of common sense.

Never mind, I am one of those doom mongerers who never see a positive side in anything. No I don't believe in the "great India Story", ofcourse I must admit there are pockets of greatness still there (eg. Amul, Baba Amte, Dr. Swaminathan), but miniscule compared to the juggernaut of incompetence, mediocracy and lack of values.

Okay finally let me join the bandwagon of cheap patriotism "जय हिन्द!!"

etcetra...

Humour "finance news style" -

I have been reading a slew of finance news off-late. Here are some interesting picks from those.

Credit Crunch in second life as well?

This story on minyanville reports some interesting anecdote about a credit crunch in second life, as if the one in first life is not good enough.

Another cool picture from an article in minyanville.



If one's not still satiated go and read bloomberg for any of the announcements made by Goldman Sachs about their "quant funds". There is more fun out there than you'd find in a Disney cartoon.


Now something about a Toy Story

Mattel has withdrawn 13.4 million chinese made toys from the market, which had more lead paint than permitted by regulation. So where are those toys going to get dumped? You right the dumping yard of Uncle Sam, India. Isn't this a reason why uncle Sam is so hard pressed about the Nuke deal? Where'd you dump the nuclear waste otherwise?

PS:
Why does blogger have a nasty "onKeyPress" that renders my typing to a near halt?

Do you know?

The counter yahoo uses on its finance site for the NYSE stock volumes is a 32 bit one? It wraps around after a four billion plus volume. I am going to watch it wrap around tonite, before I go to sleep........

and for those who didn't believe me - here is the screen-shot

Before Wrap up




After wrap up

a quick link

Here is something I came across,on bloomberg.com. It's about some fake pfizer drugs being sold in India.

Here is the link

Thought may be I should spread the word!

who's the boss out here?

Amazing video I stumbled upon while reading something.